Investing Is Not About Fundamentals — It’s About Demand and Supply

ANUBHAV Sood
Aug 31
4 min read

Updated: Sep 1

Efficient Earners | Indian Markets | Root | Investing Mindset | ~10 min read

How a late-night shopping experience revealed the secret to better investment timing

The Night That Changed My View

I’ll never forget the night I bought the iPhone 15 Pro Max.

For someone like me, coming from a modest background, every milestone has been earned through hard work. Buying that phone wasn’t just a purchase—it felt like an achievement.

It happened during Flipkart’s Big Billion Days. I was a Plus member, so the sale opened for me a day earlier. The price flashed ₹1,50,000, and with offer and exchange, I expected to pay around ₹1,35,000.

But here’s where the real lesson began.

At 12 AM, the deal looked fixed. By 2 AM, demand had slowed. Flipkart unlocked another hidden discount. Suddenly, the same iPhone was available to me for around ₹1,11,000. By morning, the price bounced back to ₹1,35,000.

Question: Did Apple’s iPhone fundamentals change in those five hours?

Answer: No. The product was the same. What changed was demand and supply.

That night became my turning point as an investor.

What My MBA Didn’t Teach Me

In my MBA days, we were drilled on ratios: P/E, P/B, ROE, countless formulas. But honestly? I struggled to connect with them. They never explained why prices moved when they did.

And when I began investing, I realised most people are stuck in the same trap—chasing ratios and cheap valuations while ignoring the real driver of price: demand and supply.

Of course, in the very long term, fundamentals matter. A great business will survive cycles and compound wealth. But if you want better returns within your investment journey, you must understand when demand is coming in and when it’s fading.

Why Stick With Strong Stocks

Think about it:

NIFTY50 and NIFTY100 companies are already screened, regulated, and monitored.
Their fundamentals are strong—else they wouldn’t even be in the index.
The real edge is not “is Reliance a good company?” (everyone knows it is). The real edge is when is the demand flowing into Reliance shares, and when is it drying up?

That’s where average investors lose out. They get tempted by “cheap stocks” (like chasing budget phones during a sale) instead of focusing on leaders where demand cycles repeat over years.

The iPhone Analogy for Investing

When I bought the iPhone:

Same product, different prices, depending on demand.
Flipkart managers adjusted discounts to trigger urgency.
Buyers who understood timing got the best deal.

Now replace iPhone with a stock like HDFC Bank or L&T.

Same company, same fundamentals.
Stock prices dip into accumulation phases when demand is low.
They rise when demand picks up, then cool off when demand saturates.

The lesson? As an investor, your returns improve by entering during low-demand phases and holding through demand surges—not by endlessly chasing “cheap” new stories.

A Simple Exercise You Can Try (Investor’s Version)

Take any 5 NIFTY50 stocks on TradingView (daily timeframe, last 1 year).

Mark the lowest point and the highest point in 2024.
Note how many months it took for the stock to travel from low to high.
Now imagine you captured just 60% of that move (not the full).
Once it peaked, you rotated to another stock that was just starting its upward journey.

Do this across 5 leaders and add up the returns. Compare this to holding a struggling mid-cap “because it’s cheap” or sticking blindly with fundamentals.

You’ll see the power of knowing when to enter and when to step aside.

Why This Matters

Investing isn’t about memorising ratios. It’s about being smart with where you place your money and when you rotate it.

If NIFTY50 companies already have proven fundamentals, your real job is to:

Buy during low-demand phases (the quiet periods).
Hold through demand surges (the growth leg).
Rotate capital when demand fades to another strong stock starting a new cycle.

That’s investing with clarity—not gambling with hopes.

Action Box (For You Today)

Open TradingView → Choose 5 NIFTY50 stocks.
Mark the bases (sideways ranges) where price stayed calm before rising.
Ask: If I had invested in tranches during those bases and exited near the highs, how would my returns look?
Write it down in a notebook. Compare it with your returns from chasing cheap stocks.

This one exercise will change how you see investing.

When I bought the iPhone, the fundamentals of Apple never changed. What changed was demand and supply.

The same is true for investing. Stop burning your hands on weak stories. Stick with strong companies. Learn to read demand and supply. Rotate smartly.

That’s how wealth is built—not by fate, but by clarity.

Relatable Lens (Ghar ka Budget Version)

SIP keeps running in index funds and your top convictions.

Top-ups go where the street is bored, not where Twitter is celebrating.

When a holding flies too fast, you trim a little—not because you’re clever, but because fees, EMIs, and life can use a smoother ride.